OXFORD University Estimate 1.3 million Covid-19 Infection in Ghana – 2740 more walking around unaccounted for

Using the GLEAMviz computational tool, to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios, a team of research scholars from the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford is estimating a total of 1.3 million people getting infected with the of the deadly Covid-19 coronavirus.

According to the team, as of March 28, 2020, when Ghana officially confirmed about 138 infections, some 2740 were walking around untested and were potentially spreading the virus across the country.

On the Website of the research, the researchers claim the  impact on Ghana is simulated using an epidemiological model based on global, real-world data on human population and travel patterns.

“We want to emphasise that real outcomes depend on human actions. The mitigation strength is our choice. Even given some mitigation level, the outcome is still uncertain…”

The researchers claim the numbers could hit that disturbing level based on conditions such as the seasonality of the virus and its response to changing weather conditions and technological progress in testing and contract tracing.

“We are trying to augment data on confirmed cases by estimating the true number of infections in selected countries. This gets around issues of testing capacity and under-reporting in official statistics. This is done using a combination of statistical modelling and human forecasting,” stated the researchers at Oxford University.

Ghana is currently in a race against time to contain the virus and had instituted a lockdown decree in four cities. Critics think that strategy is a disaster waiting to happen because it will spark panic and force an exodus of people into places that are not yet locked down, similar to the situation in Italy that led to the explosion of infections.

Meanwhile, there are speculations that some high-profile members of the Akufo Addo administration have contracted Covid-19. Whatsup News is unable to verify this claim.

Ghana currently has one of the fasted growing cases of Covid-19 in the sub-region with some 152 officially confirmed cases and 5 deaths.