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Contrary to claims by the Ghana Health Service (GHS) that Ghana was at its peak of the coronavirus, a biostatistician has refuted the claims calling on Ghanaians to expect more cases.
Dr. Justice Aheto explained that Ghana currently does not have the supportive and fundamental data needed to arrive at such a conclusion as it fights the pandemic.
The GHS on Tuesday announced Ghana was at its peak of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Director of Public Health at the Ghana Health Service (GHS), Dr Badu Sarkodie said we at the stage of decline but not out of the hook yet.
At a press briefing at the Ministry of Information in Accra today [Tuesday, May 5, 2020], Mr Sarkodie in answering a question as to where Ghana is on the bell curve, he said, “So to answer directly to the question, we are at the peak of the curve.”
He explained that the determination of the bell curve depended on a lot of factors, noting that based on the samples that are being tested, the country appears to be at the peak of the curve.
“If we are using the daily case incident with the signs and symptoms, then that will have a challenge. So clearly, the best data that we are using for the bell shaped curve is the use of data of the dates samples were tested”, he said.
He added “So, you will realise that with the sharp rise and now with the cases that we are testing, clearly, we seem as a country to be on top of the peak and we are at stage to decline; that is the observation now.”
But speaking to Accra based Citi Fm, the University of Ghana lecturer, Dr. Aheto said: “We are still working together in order to get reliable data that can help us estimate the prevalence of the infection and the peak of it. We haven’t got there yet so I don’t know which data he is speaking to. Something we need to know is the reproductive rate so we could tell how many people can be infected within a day to enable us to make a forecast on how many people will be affected, recovered, or dead with a specified time period.
“It is only when we have this available to us before we can say that Ghana is at its peak when it comes to the infection. But as of now, we have not been able to get that data yet. The figures they churn out are accumulated figures and not daily data”.
” We need this data to be able to make a proper determination as to whether we are getting to the peak or we are decreasing. This has not been done yet so I don’t know which data the Ghana Health Service Director is using. In instances like this, you cannot determine at which rate you are reaching your peak.”
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