“Apple Buys Disney or Netflix”: Hollywood Insiders Reveal Their 2020 Predictions

Guilds will go on strike, digital video costs will skyrocket, a streamer will win the best picture Oscar and more forecasts as 40-plus top industry players place their bets.

It’s impossible to know what, exactly, the future holds, particularly in an era of unprecedented transformation — but that’s never stopped smart people from prognosticating. As the decade draws to a close, The Hollywood Reporter asked more than 40 of them — from the heads of studios to the faces of movements — to weigh in with their predictions for the year ahead.

Some were decidedly bold with their bets (Apple will buy Netflix! Quibi will flounder! Sony, Lionsgate and MGM will merge!); others more hopeful, with declarations about original content making a comeback, a strike by the guilds being thwarted, a rising of the underrepresented and the end of nondisclosure agreements, to name a few.

Still more wondered aloud why more people aren’t talking about such things as the proliferation of “meh” TV (“There’s a depletion of resources above the line and below, not enough care in helping a show become great,” says Annapurna chief content officer Sue Naegle); or, per attorney Craig Jacobson of Hansen Jacobson, how “Amazon is going to take an increasing share of the advertising market away from the traditional and new players given the fact that it has more data on consumer purchasing habits than anyone.”

•  My bold prediction for 2020 is:JON JASHNI
  InvestorApple+, Quibi and Peacock admit (by their actions) that they cannot truly and effectively compete in the streaming wars.FRANKLIN LEONARD
  The Black List founder An unfortunate percentage of the industry will continue to underestimate the improvement that real inclusion could make to their bottom lines.AMY BAER
  Women in Film presidentA studio will buy a theater chain and the shrinking of windows will finally begin.LINDA LICHTER
  Attorney Sony and Netflix will be bought by Amazon or Apple.STACY L. SMITH
  Annenberg Inclusion Initiative founder Five of the top 15 films of 2020 will have a female director attached.RICK GENOW
  AttorneyShort strikes by the guilds, tech dominance, agency spinoffs and, sadly, fewer major studios.CINDY HOLLAND
  Netflix chief content officerMore Americans will watch stories from other countries.LEIGH BRECHEEN
  Attorney Apple decides to go big and buys Disney or Netflix, or simply decides this business isn’t really selling many of its products and decides to get out altogether. Not a big impact on their bottom line, either way.CHARLES RANDOLPH
  Screenwriter The streamers are going to have to fall into a profit participation model in the next 18 months. The [backend] buyout days are slowly numbered.ALLISON BEGALMAN
  Young Entertainment Activists president BoJack Horseman comes true and the assistants of Hollywood unionize! And everyone in the industry gets the day off to vote.CHRIS SPICER
  Attorney There will be more acquisitions by U.S. conglomerates of foreign-based production companies who excel in local-language product.DAVID UNGER
  Artist International Group CEO A pivot back to individual voices, much like independent cinema in the ’90s. Personal storytelling will replace franchise fatigue; indie film will be back.CASSIAN ELWES
  ProducerAll the major technology companies start to realize that entertainment has to be an inherent part of their strategy, bringing major investment and new thinking.KEN ZIFFREN 
  AttorneyExpenditures on digital video in 2020 will far surpass even the most optimistic predictions. Indeed, over the next three to four years, my guess is that more than $200 billion will be directed to SVOD/AVOD digital streaming services.KRISTA VERNOFF
  ShowrunnerOriginal content will make a comeback. Off the success of Knives Out, studios will remember that IP isn’t everything. We can dream, right?HIRAM GARCIA
  ProducerApple will acquire a big content creator. They are going to spend big money to work with someone who is already doing things right.
•  In Hollywood, 2020 will be the year of:SCOTT STUBER
  Netflix film chiefMusicals and international storytellers.SARAH AUBREY
  HBO Max original content head Ending nondisclosure agreements.GREG BERLANTI
  ShowrunnerPeople alternating between deciding which streaming service to go with and fretting that Trump is going to win reelection.NGOC NGUYEN
  Time’s Up executive director The rising of the underrepresented.LESLI LINKA GLATTER
  DirectorThe woman. We’ve already seen substantial increases in female and diverse directors in TV, which is wonderful, and hopefully, 2020 will yield the same kind of increases in film, which still hovers at around 4 percent.JOSH SAPAN
  AMC Networks CEO The Big Fan. People will increasingly define themselves by their entertainment passions, with fan communities and interactivity supporting and complementing video on all platforms.JOHN FITHIAN
  NATO President“Pain,” to quote Clubber Lang in Rocky III. The incredible rate of spending and competition in the home market is going to be bloody, and there will be a few winners and a lot of losers.CHRIS LICHT
  The Late Show With Stephen Colbert showrunner Corporate social media giants will be held more accountable for what content blasts forth on their platforms.CHRIS FENTON
  Producer Aggressive congressional scrutiny on Hollywood’s cozy relationship with China.VERNOFFMiddle-of-the-night writing frenzies. The Muse of Election Terror will emerge from her slumber. We will see some bold strokes, some great art, some nervous breakdowns.LIZ ALPER
  #PayUpHollywood founderAsian directors.LESTER HOLT
  NBC Nightly News anchor Streaming.SPICERAVOD.JANET YANG
  Producer and Gold House co-founderWomen prove, without a doubt, that they can direct blockbusters.BAERThe representation business model correction. Music, film and TV have adapted to new consumer habits, and representation must finally adjust.SUE NAEGLE
  Annapurna Pictures chief content officer Working out merger madness and hopefully avoiding a strike.RICKY STRAUSS
  Disney+ content and marketing president Unparalleled access to great storytelling.
•  Looking ahead, why aren’t more people discussing:BERLANTIHow 5G will change how we make, distribute and watch entertainment.MICHAEL H. WEBER
  Screenwriter The managers and attorneys who are kicking ass on behalf of writers who no longer have agents.CRAIG JACOBSON 
  Attorney How Amazon is going to take an increasing share of the advertising market away from the traditional and new players given the fact that it has more data on consumer purchasing habits than anyone.NAEGLEToo much “meh” TV. There’s a depletion of resources above the line and below, not enough care in helping a show become great.LEONARDThe death of physical media and how the major studios could more effectively invest in the talent pipeline to the industry’s and their own benefit.YANGThe underrepresentation of Latinx and Middle Eastern talent.DAVID P. WHITE
  SAG-AFTRA national executive directorThe rapidly changing demographics of our country.BILL MECHANIC
  ProducerMaking better and a wider array of movies.NGUYENIndigenous representation.FITHIANThe remarkable stability of the domestic theatrical business.FENTONHollywood’s constantly decreasing market share in China.SMITH Why unconscious bias training hasn’t worked, and the specific psychological mechanisms that prevent equality.PHIL GRIFFIN
  MSNBC president How automation is transforming the job market.GURU GOWRAPPAN
  Verizon Media CEO5G. The future of media and entertainment industries will be among the first to benefit and transform.SARAH BARNETT
  AMC Networks Entertainment Group presidentIt’s funny to say, but YouTube. Very talented kids who grew up on user-generated video content are now entering their creative prime. And what’s their dream? To create content for the outlets that they grew up on … places like YouTube.KEYVAN PEYMANI
  Venture capitalistVirtual Beings, from digital assistants to persona-based curators to nearly indistinguishable deep fakes.DOUG WICK
  ProducerThe return of live entertainment — which, for talent, is dwarfing many more traditional revenues.BING CHEN
  Gold House co-founder and tech entrepreneur Southeast Asia. They boast some of the most populated countries in the world (Indonesia), over-index in social media consumption on several platforms and are big fans of Western sensibilities.STUBERGetting more involved civically. We can’t wait for Greta Thunberg to wake us up.VERNOFFHarvey going to jail?
•  The company that people aren’t talking enough about is:WEBER[Elizabeth Gabler’s] 3000 Pictures.BAERLionsgate. Ripe for an acquisition, and having a banner year in film and TV under new management.WHITE Marginal [MediaWorks]. They’re on the front line of inclusive, next-generation storytelling.GENOWTikTok.AUBREYJoan’s on Third. They could take a packaging fee on half their business between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m.RANDOLPHA24. I have good faith in their model — and that we’re going to see a lot more companies that work at that budget level come along.
•  The deal or trend that will finally happen next year is:JASHNI Sony, Lionsgate and MGM merge.WEBER Netflix takes home the Oscar for best picture.BRECHEENThe WGA and the agencies will finally realize that the damage done to their collective future by vertical integration, with no third-party sales, is far greater than the damage they’ve done to each other.JAY ROACH
  DirectorHopefully some exhibitor or company cracks the nut of keeping people in theaters or inspiring people to keep going to theaters — especially for comedies. There’s something about sitting in a theater and laughing contagiously with other people.GENOWLong overdue nonexclusive series deals for actors and writers.SAM GORES
  Paradigm Talent Agency chairmanA resolution to the WGA-agency conflict.NGUYENMore female directors nominated for awards!BAERStreamers will disclose viewership numbers more and more, given how competitive streaming is about to become.WICK Former first-dollar gross players will sell their private planes to people with giant streaming deals.
• source: hollywoodreporter.com