The Institute of Energy Security (IES), has given a tentative prediction that Ghana may soon start experiencing severe petroleum shortages as the pipelines shut off due to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Nana Amoasi VII, Executive Director of the IES gave the prediction in an interview on Accra-based Citi FM.
He explained that the shortage may be brought on by the continuous depreciation of the cedi and the increase in oil prices on the international market.
“I regret to announce this bad news. I hope it doesn’t happen. What we have observed over the past few months within the downstream sector of the Petroleum industry is that the depreciation of the cedi and the international oil price rise is impacting negatively on their working capital,” Amoasi explained.
“Between the last few weeks, the cedi has depreciated from about GHS 7.00 to GHS 7.4 giving a clear 40 pesewas on their business. If we are bringing the same quantity of 600 metric tones today, you will need GHS 7.40. That will amount to about GHS 4, 440 and so 30,000 metric tonnes in the next window, you will need an equivalent of about GHS 7.2 million. A clear depletion of wiring capital.”
These factors, according to him, will lead to the importation of less fuel into the system.
“If the situation continues and it is sustained, we will see a fuel shortage,” he said.
However, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Ghana Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors, Mr. Senyo Hosi holds a contrary view.
“Not at all, there won’t be an imminent shortage of fuel. I can understand their concern. It is legitimate. But we need to understand that this will not be the first time…What we just have to do is to anticipate and make sure that we move credit alongside the same levels required to sustain prices.”
Senyo Hosi is quoted as saying that stakeholders have preempted the situation.
“We have been proactive about this. We have been engaging the Central bank to deal with the issues of supply. We have also been engaging the NPA as well as the International oil traders to find ways to deal with the credit crunch that we may face because of the rising prices.”
Fuel prices at some fuel stations have crossed the GH¢8 per litre mark in the first week of March 2022 with predictions that the commodity will sell at GH¢9.00 per litre by the close of the month.