The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg updates his projections.
These projections, which will be updated regularly, reflect Scott Feinberg’s latest impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters). Note: The Academy is free to classify performers as lead or supporting, regardless of how they are campaigned. These charts reflect Scott’s best guess of what they will do in that regard.
- Best Picture’Knives Out’Claire FolgerFRONTRUNNERSOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
1917 (Universal)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)MAJOR THREATSPain and Glory (Sony Classics)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Little Women (Sony)
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
The Farewell (A24)
Rocketman (Paramount)POSSIBILITIESBombshell (Lionsgate)
Waves (A24)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.)
Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Harriet (Focus)
Downton Abbey (Focus) - Best DirectorTaika Waititi, right, directing ‘Jojo Rabbit’Kimberley French/Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERSQuentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)MAJOR THREATSTodd Phillips (Joker)
James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes)
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) — podcast
Lulu Wang (The Farewell) — podcastPOSSIBILITIESTerrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Clint Eastwood (Richard Jewell)
Jay Roach (Bombshell)
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems)
Rian Johnson (Knives Out)
Alma Har’el (Honey Boy)
Trey Edward Shults (Waves) - Best ActorPaul Walter Hauser in ‘Richard Jewell’Warner Bros. PicturesFRONTRUNNERSJoaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) — podcast
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) — podcast
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) — podcastMAJOR THREATSAntonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) — podcast
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell)
George MacKay (1917)POSSIBILITIESMichael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) — podcast
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)
Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari)
Daniel Craig (Knives Out)
Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit) - Best ActressScarlett Johansson in ‘Marriage Story’Courtesy of NetflixFRONTRUNNERSRenee Zellweger (Judy) — podcast
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Lupita Nyong’o (Us) — podcastMAJOR THREATSAwkwafina (The Farewell) — podcast
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) — podcast
Alfre Woodard (Clemency)POSSIBILITIESAna de Armas (Knives Out)
Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) — podcast - Best Supporting ActorAnthony Hopkins in ‘The Two Popes’Peter MountainFRONTRUNNERSBrad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman) — podcast
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) — podcast (2018) & podcast (2019)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)MAJOR THREATSJamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) — podcast
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
Dean-Charles Chapman (1917)
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)POSSIBILITIESTracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) — podcast
Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell) — podcast
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name) - Best Supporting ActressNicole Kidman in ‘Bombshell’Courtesy of Hilary Bronwyn Gayle SMPSPFRONTRUNNERSLaura Dern (Marriage Story)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) — podcast
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) — podcastMAJOR THREATSThomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) — podcast
Annette Bening (The Report)
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)POSSIBILITIESJulia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Taylor Russell (Waves)
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) — podcast
Lauren ‘Lolo’ Spencer (Give Me Liberty) - Best Adapted Screenplay’Dark Waters’Courtesy of: Focus FeaturesFRONTRUNNERSThe Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) — podcast
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)MAJOR THREATSDark Waters (Matthew Michael Carnahan & Mario Correa)
Just Mercy (Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham)
Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)POSSIBILITIESMotherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
Richard Jewell (Billy Ray)
Downton Abbey (Julian Fellowes) — podcast
Toy Story 4 (Stephany Folsom & Andrew Stanton) - Best Original Screenplay’The Last Black Man in San Francisco’Courtesy of Disney/PixarFRONTRUNNERSParasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) — podcastMAJOR THREATSFord v Ferrari (Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth & Jason Keller)
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Bombshell (Charles Randolph)
Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) — podcast
Dolemite Is My Name (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
Booksmart (Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins & Katie Silberman)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Jimmie Fails, Rob Richert & Joe Talbot)
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast (Almodovar)POSSIBILITIESA Hidden Life (Terrence Malick)
Waves (Trey Edward Shults)
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie)
Us (Jordan Peele) — podcast (Peele)
The Lighthouse (Max Eggers & Robert Eggers)
Queen & Slim (Lena Waithe) — podcast
The Report (Scott Z. Burns) - Best Animated Feature’Weathering with You’Courtesy of GKIDSFRONTRUNNERSToy Story 4 (Pixar)
Frozen 2 (Disney)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)MAJOR THREATSMissing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Funan (GKIDS)
Weathering With You (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIESAbominable (Universal)
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal)
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) - Best Documentary Feature’Midnight Family’Courtesy of Sundance Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERSAmerican Factory (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
One Child Nation (Amazon)
Apollo 11 (Neon)
The Biggest Little Farm (Neon)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)Midnight Family (1091 Media)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
Advocate (Film Movement)
The Cave (National Geographic)
Knock Down the House (Netflix)
Maiden (Sony Classics)
Honeyland (Neon)
The Apollo (HBO)
Aquarela (Sony Classics)
The Great Hack (Netflix) - Best International Feature’Those Who Remained’Telluride Film FestivalFRONTRUNNERSParasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)Atlantics (Senegal)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Beanpole (Russia)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)
Truth and Justice (Estonia) - Best CinematographyRoger Deakins on the set of ‘1917’François Duhamel/Universal Pictures and DreamWorks PicturesFRONTRUNNERS1917 (Roger Deakins)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)MAJOR THREATSThe Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
The Two Popes (Cesar Charlone)
Marriage Story (Robbie Ryan)
Parasite (Hong Kyung-Po)
Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)
A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)POSSIBILITIESBombshell (Barry Ackroyd)
Uncut Gems (Darius Khondji)
Jojo Rabbit (Mihai Mălaimare Jr.)
Waves (Drew Daniels)
The Lion King (Caleb Deschanel)
Avengers: Endgame (Trent Oplach)LONG SHOTSThe Aeronauts (George Steel)
Harriet (John Toll)
Dark Waters (Ed Lachman)
Rocketman (George Richmond)
Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Gemini Man (Dion Beebe) - Best Film Editing’Apollo 11’FRONTRUNNERSFord v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)MAJOR THREATSMarriage Story (Jennifer Lame)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Apollo 11 (Todd Douglas Miller)
Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Maryann Brandon & Stefan Grube)
1917 (Lee Smith)
Bombshell (Jon Poll)
Rocketman (Chris Dickens)POSSIBILITIESAvengers: Endgame (Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt)
Little Women (Nick Houy)
Knives Out (Bob Ducsay)
Richard Jewell (Joel Cox)
Just Mercy (Nat Sanders)
The Farewell (Matt Friedman & Michael Taylor)
Dolemite Is My Name (Billy Fox)
A Hidden Life (Rehman Nizar Ali, Joe Gleason & Sebastian Jones) - Best Makeup & Hairstyling’Judy’Roadside Attractions/Pathé ProductionsFRONTRUNNERSBombshell
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Dolemite Is My NameMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Downton Abbey - Best Original Score’Ford v Ferrari’Merrick Morton/Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS1917 (Thomas Newman)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Ford v Ferrari (Marco Beltrami)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)MAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)Motherless Brooklyn (Daniel Pemberton)
Jojo Rabbit (Michael Giacchino)
The King (Nicholas Britell)
Avengers: Endgame (Alan Silvestri)
Pain and Glory (Alberto Iglesias)
Us (Michael Abels)
Bombshell (Theodore Shapiro)
The Farewell (Alex Weston)
Frozen 2 (Christophe Beck) - Best Original Song’Breakthrough’Courtesy of Twentieth Century FoxFRONTRUNNERS”I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
“Spirit” (The Lion King) — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Timothy McKenzie & Ilya Salmanzadeh
“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” (Wild Rose) — Caitlyn Smith, Mary Steenburgen & Kate York
“Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez
“Daily Battles (Motherless Brooklyn) — Thom YorkeMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)”I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
“Letter to My Godfather” (The Black Godfather) — Chad Hugo & Pharrell Williams
“Stand Up” (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo
“Da Bronx” (The Bronx, USA) — Paul Williams & Charles Fox
“Speechless” (Aladdin) — Alan Menken, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
“A Glass of Soju” (Parasite) — Bong Joon Ho
“I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
“Never Too Late” (The Lion King) — Elton John & Tim Rice
“Catchy Song” (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part) — Dillon Francis, Alaya High, Jon Lajoie & James Rushent
“High Above the Water” (Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am) — Kathryn Bostic - Best Visual Effects’Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’Courtesy of LucasfilmFRONTRUNNERSThe Lion King
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1917
Gemini ManMAJOR THREATS (REST OF SHORTLIST)Avengers: Endgame
Captain Marvel
Terminator: Dark Fate
Alita: Battle Angel
Cats
Source:hollywoodreporter.com