Mahama and NDC Expected to Win 2024 Elections, According to EIU Forecast

Story By Leo Nelson

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an international research and analysis advisory firm, has restated its earlier prediction that President John Dramani Mahama and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) are poised to emerge victorious in the upcoming elections scheduled for December.

In a forecast issued on September 13, 2024, the EIU reinforced its May 2021 prediction, expressing a high level of confidence in the NDC’s potential success.

The forecast now lacks the cautious tone that accompanied the previous 2021 prediction, attributing the anticipated victory to strong and widespread anti-incumbency sentiment fueled by challenging financial and economic conditions.

The EIU anticipates a peaceful transfer of power post-election, with any disputes likely to be resolved by impartial courts, as has been the historical trend, including in the 2020 elections.

The EIU, the research arm of the Economist Group, renowned for the precision of its projections, has effectively foreseen past electoral outcomes such as the 2016 and 2020 triumphs of the ruling New Patriotic Party and Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

According to the EIU’s latest assessment, the NDC is expected to secure victories in both the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

The forecast attributes this potential success to widespread disillusionment with the Akufo-Addo government’s handling of Ghana’s economy.

The recent forecast echoes a similar prediction made in March 2021, suggesting that the NDC stood to gain in the upcoming election, particularly if a new presidential candidate were to be considered.

With the constitutional term limits prohibiting Mr. Akufo-Addo from seeking a third term, the EIU expects a revitalized NDC with a fresh candidate to secure a victory in the 2024 presidential election and gain a slight majority in parliament.

While the forecast also anticipates an increase in political unrest leading up to the December polls, it remains confident that Ghana’s robust democratic institutions will facilitate a smooth transition of power.

The EIU emphasizes that international observers have consistently deemed past elections as free and fair, expecting this trend to persist in the forthcoming polls.

Despite the NDC’s planned demonstrations across the regional capitals citing concerns over the electoral roll’s accuracy, the EIU suggests a low transition-related risk to their central forecast.

Public discontent with the incumbent government’s economic policies, ethnic tensions, and rising inflation all pose potential risks of unrest around the parliamentary and presidential elections in December.